A Ground Invasion Would Be A Catastrophe

A Ground Invasion Would Be A Catastrophe

I've been watching the recent war unraveling and have my own predictions about what will happen like a US ground invasion. Though I'm not 100% positive such a scenario would play out, I'm pretty confident some form of it or another will happen very soon enough. I just don't see how the US can easily walk away from something they initiated with Israel unless they want their ally to be eradicated from the Middle East by Iran. 

And I don't believe any ceasefire will occur ever again. After Iran was deceived not once but twice during peace negotiations, were they attacked almost immediately thereafter. Such trust has been eroded to the point of no return. So anyone who keeps peddling this hopeful idea of a peace deal is just engaging in wishful thinking, delusion and not reality. 

But I want to discuss why a ground invasion in Iran would absolutely decimate the US military, it's supply lines and logistics capabilities inasmuch that recovery and rebounding from such action would be extremely hard or near impossible. 

What the Terrain Shows

Limited Sea-Ground Invasion

If the US wanted to invade Kharg Island by sea from the West at Kuwait or from the South at Qatar, they would have to be able to defend themselves in the process of getting there first and foremost. They should expect heavy barrages of missile and drone strikes coming from the nearby coastlines close to Kharg Island or from the Zagros mountains, which is the Southwestern mountain range, just behind the coastline. You'd probably have resistance from potential enemy units on Kharg Island with air defense systems backing them  from the zagros mountains and coastline as well. Not to mention the very high likelihood of sea mines near or around Kharg Island would disrupt progression quite a bit. It would seem to be a suicide mission to try your odds at going through these extremely large obstacles.

Let's assume some naval ships, transport carriers and troopships made it to Kharg's Island. You would still be bombarded by Iran from the coastline and Zagros mountains so you will need to have the navy transport units beyond Kharg's Island simultaneously to the coastline to conduct mission creeping and stop the threats on the coastline and nearby Zagros mountains. The likelihood of this being successful up to this point is slim to none because the Iranians would have already been doing the bulk of the damage on our way to Kharg Island likely from undisclosed and hidden locations around the Zagros mountains and more than likely in other areas way beyond them. The ones that miraculously did end up making it would be swallowed up along the coastline chances are. 

Then the problem of alpine warfare starts where the Iranians have the time to ambush and set up coordinated groups of combatants in specific spots along ridgelines and berms in the Zagros mountains as the US troops attempt to mission creep to control the higher ground just outside of Kharg Island. If you get what I'm saying, this is more akin to a D-Day like scenario but on steroids. And it spells disaster no matter how you look at this. 

Full Scale Ground Invasion: Pakistan

Let's say the US got permission from the Pakistani government to conduct a full scale ground invasion from the east side of Iran, opening an eastern front. The objective is to take over Tehran. That will be around a 2000 kilometer trip from start to end. You would have quite a grueling and precarious trip through the Lut desert with supply lines stretched quite thin. The Iranians would use the terrain to their advantage and it's quite plausible that you would have nothing but IED minefields, possible guerilla operations by the locals and constant bombardment from missile and drone strikes before you could even set forth on your very long 2,000 kilometer endeavor. Not to mention that you would have yet to run into the brunt of the IRGC military after you finally made through the Lut desert and vast terrain ahead by some miracle. 

I think this would honestly be an even worse decision to make than the limited sea-ground invasion as the Lut desert can get as hot as 160°F, making it one of the hottest places on earth! You would have to expect a lot of the units to be bogged down and vehicle issues could very much arise over long stretches of the desert. Even heat stroke fatalities could very easily be a big issue considering wearing all that gear in extreme temperatures. Simple enough, the Iranians would just use the desert as its first weapon to really demoralize, weaken and stretch US logistics thin before bombarding them some more. It would be a catastrophe for the US.

Now, some will say that we can just 'use the Air Force to do the supplying and quicken recovery.' Unfortunately, that is not the case when we have seen time and time again throughout the war that the Iranians are very much capable of detecting and neutralizing our aircraft from the air. And not to mention that the Air Force mainly conducts very limited, smaller and specific targeted operations, not carrying the bulk of the ground forces. Air superiority only works if there is very little threat of air defense systems. That is not the case here. 

So let's recap: The disadvantageous terrain, possible guerilla operations within nearby communities, constant stretching of supply lines, obstacles, extreme heat, and the expected constant missile and drone fire from within Iran while in the Lut desert should be enough to make the US reconsider its strategy yet again. If the US were to push forward, I don't think you'd have much of an assault by the time they made it to Tehran's doorstep. 

Conclusion

Of course, this is just my opinion with consideration to the map of Iran. But there is absolutely no easy way to do any type of ground invasion for the US without incurring a lot of casualties. I highly recommend against this course of action if they are considering it as it will only put fuel on the already existing fire going on not only in the Middle East but in the US as well.